Web-based application to project the burden of Alzheimer's disease

Abstract 

Background

Health care planning and research would benefit from tools that enable researchers to project the future burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and evaluate the effect of potential interventions.

Methods

We created a web-based application of the AD prevalence model developed by Brookmeyer et al (Am J Public Health 1998;88:1337–42; Alzheimers Dement 2007;3:186–91). The user defines the disease parameters and any interventions that may either reduce risk or slow disease progression. We expanded the parameters to include the cost and weights for disability-adjusted life years.

Application

The secure, web-based application generates detailed AD projections for each calendar year to 2050, and allows users to create personal accounts for them to save, retrieve, and modify the input parameters. The flexibility of the application is illustrated with a forecast for the state of Maryland, USA.

Conclusions

The application generates AD burden projections, costs, and disability-adjusted life years, along with changes associated with potential interventions.

Keywords: Forecasting, Disease burden, Multi-stage disease model, Web-tool, Costs, Preventative therapy, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)